Improving global growth outlook is pushing investors out of the gold ETFs space and into equities due to FOMO (“fear of missing out”), according to one analyst.
“The precious metal has been out of luck as investors are interested in buying riskier assets than parking their money in safe-haven assets,” ThinkMarkets chief market analyst Naeem Aslam wrote in a note on Wednesday. “The reality is that everyone is looking at the quarterly performance of equity markets and they are feeling FOMO.”
Gold ETFs saw some significant losses this week, with the holdings of the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, falling to their lowest level since March 8 at 768.10 tonnes on Tuesday.
Global growth outlook improved this week as services and composite PMI data from around the world surprised on the upside. And it is this lack of risk-off sentiment that is keeping gold below its key psychological level of $1,300, said Aslam.
“For me, the critical level for the gold price is $1,300, and the price needs to stay above this mark in order to convince the bulls that the path of the least resistance is skewed to the upside,” he stated.
Aside from the risk-off sentiment at the moment, the macro elements are set up in favor of higher gold prices, the analyst added.
“The dovish stance by the Fed should have provided a lot of support for the gold price because if the Fed is dovish, then interest rates aren’t going to go higher. This means a lower dollar. The dollar index is down nearly 0.40 percent from its peak of 97.70 but year-to-date, it is up 1.06 percent,” Aslam wrote.
Also, the U.S.-China trade talks are coming to an end, which will help push gold higher, the note pointed out.
“If the Fed remains dovish, I am expecting the gold price to continue to consolidate between the levels of $1,260 to $1,360. I do not see any substantial reason why the Fed would change its stance because Donald Trump is still not happy with the Chairman of the Fed and he still blames the Fed for hiking the interest rate,” he stated.